The study estimates that 59.0% of Phase 3 development paths advanced to approval in its reconstructed 2000–2015 dataset. Compare nine therapeutic groups, two datasets and six checks before a decision date.
Phase 3 Approval Rate: Only 59% of Programs Make It Read More »
The SaaS Capital Index median fell 42.5% from December 2025 to June 2026. Follow the monthly path, compare operating medians, and separate a fixed-revenue valuation model from investment returns.
SaaS Revenue Multiple: The 42.5% Drop from December 2025 to June 2026 Read More »
Semiconductor ETF dollar cost averaging or waiting for a dip? Test a three-year delay, cash returns and sector risk. The $14,824 gap is a model scenario.
Semiconductor ETF Dollar Cost Averaging: Costly 3-Year Wait? Read More »
Currency exposure drives the HEFA-versus-EFA comparison. Separate dated fund fees from hypothetical trading-cost assumptions and modeled long-term gaps.
Hedged vs Unhedged ETF Returns: Currency Risk, Fees and Scenarios Read More »
Why emerging markets underperform despite GDP growth: compare 15 markets and see how share dilution can keep economic growth from reaching shareholders.
Why Emerging Markets Underperform: 15 Markets, 1 Growth Trap Read More »
Compare US-only, all-ex-US, and global portfolio scenarios without mistaking historical averages for forecasts. The foreign-leading case is hypothetical and the developed/emerging comparison uses a different market split.
100% US vs Global Portfolio: What Diversification Changes Read More »
A strong dollar can shrink international ETF returns. Compare two MSCI indexes in local currency and dollars, then test the model’s hedging-cost assumptions.
Strong Dollar and International ETFs: 2 Costly Return Gaps Read More »
Is gold an inflation hedge? The 1980 real-price peak led to a decades-long purchasing-power decline. Test the endpoints and see where protection fails.
Is Gold an Inflation Hedge? The Costly 1980 Lesson Read More »
The yield curve recession indicator has flagged every US recession in sixty years, yet selling at inversion skipped a 28.8% rally.
Yield Curve Recession Indicator: Warning, Not a Sell Signal Read More »
Even with perfect foresight, business cycle investing beat the market by at most 2.3% a year from 1948 to 2007, and real costs erase it. Here is what works.
Business Cycle Investing: Why Sector Rotation Is Hard to Trade Read More »
