Investment Cost Models: What Each Dollar Gap Measures


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Use this page in two steps: choose what you are trying to measure, then open the linked page for its assumptions. Dollar gaps from different models do not form one total and should never be added together.

Choose a Model

Pick the row closest to what you are trying to answer, then jump to that section.

If you want to… Start here
Check a fee, cash yield, tax rule, contribution limit, or account term Direct Account & Cost
Compare portfolio choices, strategies, rebalancing rules, or investor actions Portfolio & Decision
Examine a historical regime, currency path, or defined stress case Reviewed Dollar Outputs
Evaluate accounting, valuation, governance, or published research Fundamental Analysis
Judge a trading signal, pattern, crossover, alert, or backtest Trading Signals

Dollar size is not a ranking. Open the matching section, then check the linked page’s inputs and assumptions.

Reviewed Dollar Outputs

Status: six dollar outputs are currently visible. Each one matches the linked page’s calculation record or stated math. Use that page for the inputs, date, and limits before you rely on the number.

Published output What the scenario measures Model type Horizon Article
$762,837 A 30-year real-return comparison between all-US and all-ex-US portfolios. The linked article also tests a future case in which the result reverses. Historical and regime comparison 30 years 100% US Portfolio
$163,177 A ten-year currency case for an international-stock sleeve under the linked article’s stated dollar path. Currency and regime scenario 10 years Strong Dollar and International ETFs
$83,276 A purchasing-power loss from a harsh historical gold entry window in the linked article. It is a selected stress case, not a forecast for gold. Historical stress test 20 years Is Gold an Inflation Hedge?
About $19,200 A fixed ten-year cash comparison from the linked article. The displayed figure rounds its current calculation of $19,196; the two cash inputs stay fixed for the model rather than serving as forecasts. Cash scenario 10 years Brokerage Sweep Cash
$9,971 A 12-year stress case on $180,000 that assumes a steady 0.20 percentage-point annual drag. The linked article builds that case from a dated fund-fee gap plus Vanguard’s historical maximum transaction-cost assumption. It is not HEFA’s observed recurring cost. Cost stress scenario 12 years Hedged vs Unhedged ETF Returns
$8,834 A 30-year nominal after-tax comparison of one $7,500 Roth contribution with the same money in a taxable brokerage account. The base case uses a 7.00% annual return and 15% federal tax on qualified dividends and the gain at full sale; a fully zero-tax path ties. Tax-path scenario 30 years What One Missed Roth IRA Contribution Costs

Reviewed on August 7, 2026: six rows are tied to current owner-article records. The remaining entries are topic routes only. Their old summary dollar figures stay hidden until the linked page is reviewed again.

Direct Account & Cost Models

Use this section when the main input is something you can check: a fee, account rule, cash setting, tax rule, or contribution limit. Entries without a visible dollar amount simply route you to the linked page, where the current facts and assumptions belong.

Topic Primary model question
Mega Backdoor Roth How after-tax plan capacity changes the amount that can reach a Roth account.
Health Savings Account (HSA) Investment Strategy How leaving HSA contributions in cash differs from investing under stated assumptions.
Tax-Loss Harvesting Rules How a modeled tax deferral or benefit changes compounding.
Expense Ratio Impact How a documented annual fund cost changes future value.
Roth vs Traditional IRA How equal contribution labels can hide different after-tax capacity and future tax treatment.
Zero-Commission Broker Costs How execution, cash, and lending economics can exist alongside a $0 commission label.
Backdoor Roth IRA Rules How the pro-rata rule changes a conversion scenario.
401(k) Match Vesting How forfeiting an unvested match changes long-run retirement value.
Overfunded 529 Plan How tax, penalty, and alternative-use assumptions affect an overfunded account.
Pattern Day Trader Rule How settlement and buying-power constraints affect an active-trading scenario.
CPI vs PCE How choosing a price index changes a real purchasing-power calculation over a stated horizon.

Fundamental Analysis Models

Use this section for accounting, valuation, governance, and bankruptcy questions. The table shows the question each page is built to answer. It does not bring back an old headline estimate before the evidence and model question are checked again.

Topic Research or measurement question
Asset Allocation Strategy What policy-allocation research does and does not explain about portfolio return variation.
Cash Flow Statement Analysis How cash-flow measures can alter a financial-distress assessment.
PEG Ratio How growth assumptions inside a valuation multiple affect the comparison.
Adjusted P/E Ratio How claimholder and balance-sheet differences affect an equity multiple.
Predict Company Bankruptcy How model thresholds and false positives change a screening decision.
Revenue Growth and Accrual Quality How accrual reliability and revenue growth should be interpreted without turning a portfolio spread into an individual-stock haircut.
Income Statement Analysis How cost behavior and operating assumptions affect an earnings scenario.
EV/EBITDA vs P/E How capital structure changes the denominator and comparability of valuation multiples.
Economic Moat How a qualitative label differs from a valuation-aware investment rule.
CEO Red Flags How governance evidence should be translated into a concentrated-position scenario.
How to Read a 10-K How filing sections support or contradict a narrative investment thesis.

Portfolio & Decision Models

Topic Decision question
Investment Policy Statement How a stated behavioral-drag assumption changes a long-run portfolio path.
Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy How threshold and calendar rules differ under stated costs and tracking assumptions.
Business-Cycle Investing What a perfect-foresight or upper-bound backtest can and cannot say about real-world timing.
Why Emerging Markets Underperform How growth, dilution, valuation, and shareholder return can diverge.
Why GDP Is a Lagging Indicator How reacting to an early GDP estimate changes a hypothetical portfolio path.
How to Read the Jobs Report How a one-time reaction to a noisy labor-market release changes a stated portfolio scenario.

Decision models stay indexed by the choice they test. A summary dollar figure returns only after the action, timing, recovery path, and costs are explicit.

Trading Signal Models

Use this section for signals and backtests. The index keeps the test question visible while the old summary figure stays hidden. The rule, sample, and trading costs must be checked again before any signal is used with real money.

Topic Primary audit question
Candlestick Patterns Does the reported win rate survive costs, base rates, and out-of-sample testing?
Support and Resistance Does price clustering translate into implementable excess return?
Trendline Survivorship Bias Are the selected rules and securities free from look-ahead and survivor selection?
SMA vs EMA Crossover Does the turnover and cost assumption match the tested strategy and investor?
RSI Overbought Signal Does classification accuracy establish a tradable return after costs?
Does MACD Work? Is a composite annual drag supported by the cited studies or only imposed by the scenario?
Bollinger Band Squeeze Are direction, volatility, and transaction-cost assumptions measured or hypothetical?
Volume Precedes Price Do the cited papers test the same folk claim and the same trading rule?
TradingView Settings for Investors How much activity is caused by alerts, and what cost assumptions belong to that behavior?

Use the Library

Three checks before you use a dollar gap

  • Match the question: confirm that the model measures the fee, tax path, decision, historical case, or research claim you actually care about.
  • Match the inputs: check the balance, horizon, rate, tax assumption, and measurement date in the owner article.
  • Recheck changing inputs: rates, fees, tax rules, fund data, and account terms can make an older scenario stale even when its math is correct.

For formulas, source rules, time conventions, and model limits, use How TheFinSense Calculates. That page explains the common rules behind every model listed here.

Which input can you verify today?

Open one account statement or plan document and check one dated input: cash return, expense ratio, advisory fee, contribution limit, or vested balance. That check is more useful than choosing the largest number on this page.

Update history

  • v2.5 2026-08-07 ROUTER UPDATE

    Replaced the long question list with a compact two-column selector so readers can reach the right model section faster.

  • v2.4 2026-08-07 LIBRARY REDESIGN

    Reworked the top of the page into a question-based model router and shortened the section labels. Reviewed dollar outputs now sit apart from the broader topic index so the page works more like a reference library.

  • v2.3 2026-08-07 FACT CHECK & REPAIR

    Rechecked all six visible scenarios against their linked articles and clarified the HEFA/EFA stress-case wording. Model labels and evidence notes were also simplified for faster scanning.

  • v2.2 2026-08-04 UPDATE

    Added the missed Roth IRA contribution model after its article review. The visible reviewed table now contains six rows.

  • v2.1 2026-07-19 UPDATE

    Added the hedged-versus-unhedged ETF stress case after its article review. At that point, the visible table contained five rows.

  • v2.0 2026-07-14 MAJOR REVISION

    Replaced the old exact-cost leaderboard with a model library. Four reviewed outputs stayed visible, while 37 older dollar figures were withheld pending article-level review.

  • v1.1 2026-07-12 UPDATE

    Added model entries through the July 2026 publication set.

Educational quantitative analysis based on published data. Not investment, tax, or legal advice. Consult a licensed professional before acting on any calculation. About TheFinSense.