How TheFinSense Calculates | Methodology



How TheFinSense Calculates

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Every dollar figure on TheFinSense traces back to a specific formula, a specific data source, and a specific date. This page documents the calculation methodology behind our analysis so you can verify, challenge, or extend any number we publish.

Core Formulas

Lump Sum Future Value

Used when a single deposit grows without additional contributions.

See the formula

FV = P × (1 + r)t

P = initial principal. r = annual return rate (decimal). t = years.

Example: $100,000 at 10% for 30 years = $100,000 × (1.10)30 = $1,744,940.

Lump Sum + Monthly Contributions (Annuity)

Used when regular deposits supplement an initial balance.

See the formula

FVtotal = FVlump + FVannuity

FVlump = P × (1 + r/12)t×12

FVannuity = PMT × [((1 + r/12)t×12 – 1) / (r/12)]

PMT = monthly contribution. r/12 = monthly rate.

Example: $0 initial + $625/month at 10% for 30 years = $625 × [((1.00833)360 – 1) / 0.00833] = $1,412,805.

Gap Calculation

Every “gap” figure is the difference between two FV calculations using the same time horizon and contribution schedule, with only the cost variable changed.

See the formula

Gap = FVoptimized – FVdefault

The “optimized” scenario removes or reduces the identified cost. The “default” scenario uses the current platform setting or conventional approach.

Both scenarios use identical contribution schedules, time horizons, and gross return assumptions. Only the cost variable differs.

Data Sources

We use primary sources only. No secondhand citations.

Data TypeSourceUpdate Frequency
T-Bill RatesFRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — DGS3MO seriesWeekly
HYSA RatesDepositAccounts.com + FDIC National RatePer article
Brokerage Sweep RatesDirect from broker websites (Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard)Per article
Expense RatiosMorningstar fund pagesPer article
Tax BracketsIRS Revenue Procedures (irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/)Annually
Regulatory FilingsFINRA Rule Browser, SEC EDGAR, Federal RegisterPer article
Academic ResearchNBER, SSRN, direct journal PDFsPer article
Market ReturnsS&P 500 historical data via FRED or Damodaran (NYU Stern)Per article

Standard Assumptions

Unless stated otherwise in the article, these defaults apply:

VariableDefaultWhy
Gross return rate10% nominalS&P 500 long-term average (1926-2024)
Inflation rate3%Fed long-run target + historical average
Time horizon30 yearsWorking career standard
Tax filing statusMarried Filing JointlyMost common US filing status
State tax0% (unless specified)Conservative — state tax makes gaps larger
RoundingDollar amounts to nearest whole dollarReadability
Percentages2 decimal placesPrecision without clutter

Sensitivity Analysis

Every article includes a sensitivity section showing how the gap changes when assumptions shift. We vary at least 2 independent variables (typically return rate and cost rate) across 3 levels each.

When a third variable creates interaction effects (e.g., tax bracket + contribution level + return rate), we present interaction tables showing the full matrix.

What We Do Not Account For

Every methodology has boundaries. Ours does not account for:

FactorWhy ExcludedImpact Direction
Behavioral deviationWe assume the investor follows the plan — most do notGaps are likely larger in practice
Tax law changesWe use current law as published — future legislation is unpredictableCould increase or decrease gaps
Sequence of returns riskWe use flat annual rates — real markets fluctuateHistorical backtest sections address this
Advisory fees beyond scopeEach article isolates one cost — interactions are noted but not compoundedTotal cost is higher than any single article shows

How to Verify Our Numbers

Every article provides enough information for you to replicate the calculation:

  1. Find the Calculation Transparency section (typically in H2_3 or H2_4).
  2. Note the formula, input values, and stated result.
  3. Open any FV calculator (or a spreadsheet) and input the same values.
  4. If your result differs by more than $1 from ours, contact us — we will correct it publicly.

Per-Article Calculation Record

Revenue Growth Accrual Quality — $109,616

Article: Revenue Growth Quality: The 18% Accrual Trap (2026) · Published April 13, 2026

See the calculation

Formula: FV = P × (1 + r)t

VariableValueSource
P (initial balance)$80,000Case study
r (annual return)7.0%Conservative equity assumption
t (time horizon)30 yearsCase study (age 30→60)
Repricing %18.0%Richardson et al. (2005) Table 10 — DELTA-NOA hedge return

Steps:

  1. Path A (cash-confirmed): $80,000 × (1.07)30 = $608,980
  2. Repricing hit: $80,000 × 18.0% = $14,400
  3. Path B starting balance: $80,000 − $14,400 = $65,600
  4. Path B terminal: $65,600 × (1.07)30 = $499,364
  5. Gap: $608,980 − $499,364 = $109,616

Python-verified. Source: Richardson, S. A., Sloan, R. G., Soliman, M. T., and Tuna, I. (2005). Journal of Accounting and Economics, 39(3), 437–485.

Correction Policy

When we find or are notified of an error, we:

  1. Correct the article within 48 hours.
  2. Update the “Last Updated” date.
  3. Add an entry to the article’s Correction Log with the date, what changed, and why.
  4. Do not delete the original claim — we show what was wrong and what replaced it.

Transparency is not optional. If we published it, we own it.

This page is reviewed quarterly. Questions about our methodology: danny@thefinsense.io

author avatar
Danny Hwang
Danny is the Lead Quant Analyst and Founder of TheFinSense. Specializing in algorithmic market trends and ETF valuation gaps, he translates complex Wall Street data into actionable, math-driven investment strategies for retail investors.